By: J. Lennox Scott | Chairman and CEO
HOUSING
FORECAST
By: J. Lennox Scott | Chairman and CEO
1 | Job Growth: The strongest driver of housing demand. Currently, job growth is flat, which tempers
market momentum.
2 | Mortgage Interest Rates: A major swing factor. Rates have dropped significantly over the past two
years, and economists expect a slight further decline in 2026.
3 | Housing Supply & Transactions: Inventory and transaction volume remain below normal because
many homeowners with 3% mortgage rates are staying put. However, both supply and sales are
projected to increase modestly in 2026.
Housing forEcast
Housing Market Sales Activity Intensity™will be healthy to strong in 2026
Market conditions point to a competitive 2026, with strong demand and limited inventory driving elevated Sales Activity Intensity™. Key factors that effect the housing market are job growth and mortgage interest rate.
This Scale measures the percentage of new resale listings that go under contract within 30 days. Available by price range within each market area.
When Selling:
1 | First 30 Days Matter
Your best chance to sell at top price is when active buyers act quickly on new listings.
2 | Be Market Ready – Day One™
• Clean, decluttered home and yard
• Competitive pricing
• Comprehensive marketing plan
• Strong personal representation for networking and negotiation
3 | Word of the Year: “Position”
Position your home within its Seller Peer Group™ (location, condition, price, marketing, representation)
to stand out and achieve the best price.
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Early 2026 Outlook by Price Range:
• Mid Price: Strong
• Luxury: Healthy
Scale: Sales Activity Intensity™
2026 Market Factors:
Typical yearly pattern of new resale listings
The housing market moves through six distinct phases each year, influencing supply, demand, and Sales Activity Intensity™.
Sales Activity Intensity™ is highest after the first of the year then it lowers slightly as additionally inventory comes on the market starting in spring and then over the summer.
Some Things Never Change
6 Phases of the Yearly Housing Cycle
Represents Number of New Resale Listings by Month
Represents Number of New Resale Listings by Month
The 2025 market went through a transition from Surge/Frenzy market, back down to Strong.
Prompted by the market transition and with the new year approaching, buyers are
increasingly asking questions like:
What’s the real market price?
As the market was adjusting in intensity, home prices were adjusting, therefore the home listed price was just
the asking price. Ask your Buyer Representative for a Market Price Analysis to negotiate effectively.
Buying & Selling at Once?
• Be aware of “Buyer Gridlock”. This occurs when a buyer needs to sell their current home to purchase
their next one.
+ When selling, be Market-Ready, Day One™
+ When buying, get fully underwritten for financing (Buyer-Ready, Day-One™)
• It’s okay to buy and sell in the same market timing because you’re operating under the same pricing
and interest rate environment. Even if prices are high or low, both transactions balance out because
you are moving within the same cycle.
When Buying:
What’s Next for You?
Your real estate journey is about more than finding a house, it’s about making choices that fit your life today and tomorrow. At John L. Scott, we live by Living Life as a Contribution®, partnering with you every step of the way. Consult your John L. Scott Broker Associate to investigate the local housing market, by price range, for your chosen market destination.
